In the early hours of 6 November, people around the UK woke up to the news that Donald Trump will once again be the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Mr Trump is, famously, not a fan of net-zero and had previously called efforts to boost green energy a ‘scam’. In relation to oil and gas he summarized his policy as ‘drill baby drill’.

Whilst the UK is not America, the US is still the world’s second highest emitter of CO2 which is likely to make the UK position politically difficult if energy prices remain four times those of the US and the US once again pulls out of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The public appear underwhelmed and are voting with their wallets, seeing electric car sales plummet and second-hand values so low that the UK leasing business is preparing for a financial shock.

Technological innovation requires the coming together of multiple components and a positive political, social and economic environment to create the right conditions to support a new product that outperforms the existing market. Here, infrastructure and generating capacity is lacking and battery power is still woefully heavy for the power stored. The heralded solid-state batteries have a potential energy density of 400Wh/kg compared to a traditional lithium battery of 250Wh/kg. So that’s 50kg against 80kg for a 100km journey. A typical diesel-powered car will require seven litres of fuel weighing 6kg for the same distance. There is still a factor of 10 difference and for larger heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) the figures only look worse, hence why hydrogen is being explored.

When Camille Jenatzy took the land speed record on April 29, 1899 driving the electrically powered ‘La Jamais Content’ to over 100km/hr, little did he know that only three years later his record would be taken from him by Léon Serpollet in a steam powered vehicle. Only in 1909 did the internal combustion engine prove decisive. The point of this trawl through history is to highlight that technological change is never precise; there is always a period of uncertainty and competition before one technology proves dominant. It may not even be the most sophisticated, but through marketing and promotion, a brand cuts through. Ford eventually brought the Model T Ford automobile to the masses.

The same could be argued for the change to electric cars. The need for cheap and easy transportation remains and demand for an affordable solution is insatiable. The technology for Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles is proven and reliable and competition over many years means that the vehicles are available at a price that many can afford, even if credit remains the preferred option. Electric vehicles, as can be seen, are more than 125 years old and for over 100 years were no more than an interesting sideshow. The prize for manufacturers is potentially substantial but the cost of getting there is astronomic, and many will be casualties along the way. Northvolt, Britvolt, Volta Trucks and Exide Batteries are early fatalities.

So, Government has attempted to drive demand by incentives for the public and grants for local government for a technological solution that remains expensive and, for larger vehicles, has yet to reach parity with ICE models. With successive governments committed to a carbon free future, and with local government being driven to be the early adopters, some of the technology is relatively fresh out of the laboratory and has never been exposed to the vagaries of a grumpy Lancashire waste operative in winter.

Into the mix, Rachel Reeves delivered the first budget by a female Chancellor in British history on 30 October. Much of what it contained was of little surprise with rises in capital gains tax and employer national insurance. However, hidden within the plans is a Devolution Bill which may end the two-tier system of counties and districts, whilst ‘cleaning up’ the existing smaller unitaries. That means a potential 40% reduction in the number of local authorities with the loss of 164 district councils and 21 counties with mayoral models for all. Many districts are in severe financial stress and unitarisation may be a welcome escape. That said, the years of re-organisation will be highly disruptive. No district is going to throw away millions on new fleet and maintenance depots that could be closed in less than five years and amalgamated.

So continued technological change, an uncertain political climate and possible existential threat for many. Local government fleet over the next five years is not for the faint hearted!

This article was first published in the winter issue of LAPV.